“And that makes us very, very different.”
To be sure, not everyone at HM14 had the rosiest view on Obamacare and how it will play out in the next few years from a policy perspective. Scott Gottlieb, MD, a practicing physician, U.S. Food and Drug Administration alumni, and American Enterprise Institute fellow, said that the financial repercussions of reforms will reduce costs.
“That might affect hospitalist employment, or the hospitalists are going to have to take on new responsibilities to try to make up for services that hospitals might be shedding,” Dr. Gottlieb said. “But if I were trying to pick a growth industry right now, it would be restructuring distressed hospitals. That’s what’s going to happen in five years.”
Dr. Gottlieb, a frequent contributor to Fox News, said that while many political conservatives argue that Obamacare is driving all of the healthcare problems, many underlying components of the ACA have support from Republicans and Democrats, including proposed reforms to Medicare’s sustainable growth rate (SGR) formula.
“It’s hard to just blame Obamacare for this,” he said. “The SGR bill, which is coming out of a Republican-led House and has bipartisan support, codifies major elements of Obamacare that, frankly, I’ve been criticizing for the last four years.”
Dr. Gottlieb believes that risk sharing has to improve for healthcare reform to be embraced by the best-performing doctors. Bundled payments, for example, shift nearly all of the payment risk onto physicians, because their revenue will be capped at a point, regardless of the cost of services rendered, Dr. Gottlieb said.
“I think, ultimately, as physicians, we should be fearful of payment models that put a lot of the financial risk on physicians without ways to offset some of that risk and without tools to manage it well,” he added.
“I want to decrease people’s fear about the role of hospitalists in the healthcare system of the future. They should feel just the opposite of fear. There is unbelievable opportunity for hospitalists in the realigned healthcare system.”
—Dr. Greeno
HM14 keynote speaker and healthcare futurist Ian Morrison, PhD, said he believes that Obamacare will spur local health systems to merge, until just 100 to 200 regional or super-regional systems exist. Consolidation, he noted, ultimately will reduce the number of health systems to between 50 and 75 nationwide.
“Everybody understands we need to reform the delivery system,” Dr. Morrison said, adding that he wants hospitalists to “have an increased interest in public policy and advocate for the things that we believe in, which is better patient care and better outcomes for patients.”
With reference to Dr. Greeno’s analogy that Obamacare is a baseball game in the first inning, Dr. Morrison said he believes that all HM14 attendees will deal with policy implications of the ACA until the end of their careers. And while those changes are often frustrating, he said one of the core themes—a more unified healthcare delivery system focused on value—is for the greater good.
“The unintended consequences are going to be felt for decades,” he said. “But there are parts of it that would be very hard for anybody to disagree with: that we need to have more alignment in terms of other providers and with hospitals.”