For at least the next three to five years, Murer says, niche firms will need to be diligent about shopping around and managing their expenses in a volatile insurance marketplace. Healthcare reform, she says, is certainly not a panacea for reining in costs, but “just the beginning.”
Concerns over healthcare costs, in fact, could be among the factors driving what Robert Zipper, MD, FHM, regional chief medical officer for Tacoma, Wash.-based Sound Physicians, sees as continuing consolidation among hospitalist groups. “By that, I mean that either groups are swallowed up by the hospital in which they work or they become part of a regional or national company,” he says. Sound Physicians, with about 400 hospitalists in seven states, offers health insurance policies that don’t vary by state, easing its negotiations.
Eyes on the Bottom Line
What about the dreaded “T” word? Dr. Zipper says he hasn’t heard that many concerns about the potential tax increase just yet. “I think it’s not an issue to hospitalists in a broad sense yet,” he says, “but if you look at the salary trajectory and where things have been over the past 10 years, it’s pretty easy to predict that it will be an issue for single-income [households] where the hospitalist is the sole breadwinner.”
The 2010 State of Hospital Medicine report, which surveyed 4,211 nonacademic hospitalists from 443 groups, found a median annual income of $215,000. Calculating trends from past income surveys is difficult due to very different respondent populations, but many hospitalists are clearly near or above the $200,000 threshold for individuals and near the $250,000 threshold for families already, even before considering spousal income. The survey, for example, found median salaries of about $235,700 in the 13 states that make up the Southern region.
Even if higher-earning hospitalists are subjected to a higher tax rate next year—if the current rates expire, a climb of 4.6 percentage points, to 39.6% from 35%—not all of them are necessarily opposed to it. Political polling on the issue isn’t broken down by specific professions, but a number of blogs have pointed to a Quinnipiac University poll conducted back in March that suggested nearly two-thirds of upper-income Americans were prepared to sacrifice some of their take-home pay to help reduce the deficit. In that poll (www.quinnipiac.edu/x1295.xml?ReleaseID=1438), some 64% of respondents earning more than $250,000 agreed that raising income taxes on themselves and other households making more than $250,000 should be a main part of any government approach to the deficit.
If taxes and insurance premiums are more immediate concerns, some HM observers are eyeing longer trends that could impact the pre-tax pay of the profession. Most hospitalists still earn far less than their specialist counterparts, of course, but increasing demand for hospitalist services has helped fuel a rise in median salaries. Last year, some observers predicted that after an impressive run, annual pay would plateau or even fall, given the current economic uncertainty, tightening profit margins, and assessment that many hospitals run HM programs at a loss.3 And in the current RVU-driven system, the “What have you done for me lately?” mentality can indeed make it difficult for hospitalists to demonstrate a solid return on the investment.
The State of Hospital Medicine report suggests that respondent HM groups have been subsidized by an average of $111,486 per physician FTE (median is $98,253), with the highest numbers in hospital-owned practices. But many experts see a window of a few years in which new healthcare delivery and payment experiments will be trotted out, whether modeled on a bundled system, accountable-care organization (ACO), or other vehicle. Under these models, payment incentives to physicians—and to hospitalists especially—could be fundamentally restructured to better reflect their true contributions as the emphasis on quality and efficiency increases.