Simple Scoring System Provides Timely Prediction of Mortality in Acute Pancreatitis
Clinical question: How can physicians predict mortality in acute pancreatitis?
Background: Historical predictors of mortality in acute pancreatitis require up to 48 hours of data, such as with the Ranson Criteria, or extensive amounts of data, such as with the APACHE II score. An easier tool is needed to predict which patients are at higher risk of mortality.
Study design: Retrospective cohort.
Setting: Patients in the Cardinal Health clinical outcomes research database, which supports public reporting of hospital performance.
Synopsis: The authors identified patients with the principal diagnosis of pancreatitis from 2000-2001 and explored numerous diagnostic findings available within the first 24 hours. Ultimately, BUN >25, impaired mental status, presence of SIRS (systemic inflammatory response syndrome), age >60, and presence of a pleural effusion were found to be predictive of mortality. These diagnostic findings correspond to the mnemonic BISAP. The BISAP score was then validated in a second cohort that included patients from 2004-2005.
Each finding in the BISAP score was given one point. A score of less than 2 was present in approximately 60% of patients admitted with acute pancreatitis, and corresponded to a mortality of less than 1%. A score of 2 corresponded to a mortality of 2%. Higher scores were associated with steeply increasing mortality, with a score of 5 corresponding with greater than 20% mortality.
The BISAP score performed similarly to the APACHE II score, but the former is easier to calculate on the day of admission and has fewer parameters. A more challenging research step will be to demonstrate that using the BISAP score to determine treatment strategies can affect patient outcomes.
Bottom line: The easy-to-calculate BISAP score is a new method for predicting mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis. This tool should help hospitalists determine, on the day of admission, to what extent patients with acute pancreatitis need aggressive management, such as ICU admission and early involvement of specialists.
Citation: Wu B, Johannes R, Sun X, Tabak Y, Conwell D, Banks P. The early prediction of mortality in acute pancreatitis: a large population-based study. Gut. 2008;57(12): 1698-1703.
Nasal Swabs Identify Viral Causes in CAP Patients
Clinical question: How often is viral infection associated with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) in adults?
Background: CAP is a clinically important disease that is associated with significant hospitalization and mortality. CAP treatment guidelines acknowledge respiratory viruses as an etiology for pneumonia, but few recommendations are made regarding management of these viral infections.
Study design: Prospective study.
Setting: Five hospitals in Edmonton, Alberta, from 2004-2006.
Synopsis: The authors enrolled 193 hospitalized adults, median age 71. Nucleic amplification tests (NATs) from nasopharyngeal swab specimens were tested for human metapneumovirus, respiratory syncytial virus, rhinovirus, parainfluenza virus 1-4, coronaviruses, and adenovirus.
Fifteen percent of these patients had a nasal swab positive for a viral infection. Interestingly, 4% of patients had both a positive viral nasal swab and positive bacterial cultures. Compared with bacterial infection, patients with viral infection tended to be older (76 vs. 64 years, P=0.01), have limited ambulation (66% vs. 32%, P=0.006), and have a history of cardiac disease (66% vs. 32%, P=0.02). Patients with bacterial pneumonia showed a statistically significant trend toward having chest pain, an abnormal white blood count, and a lobar infiltrate on chest X-ray.
Further investigations might look at how nasal swab data could be used to improve infection control within the hospital for patients found to have easily transmissible viruses. Further research could explore the feasibility of avoiding antibiotic use in patients found to have viral pneumonia, assuming bacterial co-infection is reliably excluded.